11.09.202513:55:22UTC+00Ibovespa Rises Amid Bolsonaro Trial

On Thursday, the Ibovespa index experienced a modest increase of 0.3%, pushing it above the 142,500 threshold. This movement occurred against the backdrop of several significant developments, including a pivotal trial involving Jair Bolsonaro, newly released retail sales figures, and updates on U.S. inflation.

The Supreme Court continued its probe into the alleged attempt by former President Bolsonaro to initiate a coup. In this regard, both Rapporteur Alexandre de Moraes and Judge Flávio Dino cast their votes in favor of conviction, while Judge Luiz Fux expressed a dissenting opinion. Should a conviction materialize, it could lead to economic repercussions from the U.S., potentially reinstating tariffs of no less than 50% on Brazilian exports, alongside possible sanctions targeting Moraes under the Magnitsky Act.

In economic news, Brazil's retail sales showcased a positive trajectory, with a 1% year-over-year increase. Concurrently, U.S. inflation figures rose to 2.9% in August. This inflationary trend has intensified market speculation regarding a potential 0.25% cut in Federal Reserve rates in the coming week, particularly in light of a softening labor market accompanied by political pressures.

On the equities front, there were notable performances in the retail sector, with Magazine Luiza seeing a rise of 3.1% and Raia Drogasil up by 1.5%. Similarly, leading banks like Itaú Unibanco and Bradesco saw marginal gains of 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. In contrast, shares of Vale and Petrobras declined by 0.4% and 0.5% respectively. The downturn in these stocks was influenced by tepid U.S. oil demand, a global glut in supply, and faltering iron ore prices from China.