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2025.12.1714:25:52UTC+00Cocoa Futures on the Rise

Cocoa futures have surged past $6,050 per tonne, driven by expectations of a diminished global cocoa surplus and ongoing speculative buying in anticipation of the commodity's inclusion in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) next year. On December 16, Citigroup revised its cocoa surplus estimate for the 2025/26 season down to 79,000 metric tons, a significant decrease from the 134,000 metric tons projected in September. Similarly, Rabobank on December 10 adjusted its forecast, reducing its surplus prediction to 250,000 metric tons from the previous estimate of 328,000 metric tons issued in November. Additionally, the decrease in ICE-monitored cocoa inventories has provided further support to the market. As of December 16, these inventories, stored in U.S. ports and monitored by ICE, had declined to a 9-month low of 1,651,199 bags.

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