Review of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The price test of 1.1677 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

The empty economic calendar for the eurozone affected the behavior of the single currency, and its first half of the day was subdued. EUR/USD remained driven by external factors, as dollar sentiment determined its direction in the absence of domestic catalysts. The calm environment did not provide the single currency with a clear impulse in either direction, and it remained within a narrow range.

The market is now awaiting a series of very important US data releases that could determine the dollar's direction in the near term. It will begin with the change in second-quarter GDP. GDP reflects the pace of economic growth and serves as a basis for assessing the health of the economy. The final reading is due and could set the tone for trading. However, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index will be the main driver, as the trajectory of monetary policy depends on it. Accelerating inflation would strengthen the case for a restrictive policy stance and support the dollar, while easing inflation would weaken these expectations. Personal income and spending data will show whether consumers still have sufficient financial resilience, which is particularly important against the backdrop of recent signals of deteriorating sentiment.

The pair is likely to remain subdued ahead of the data, but a notable increase in volatility is expected during the second half of the day.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1677 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1695. At 1.1695, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro today can be expected only if US data are weak. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1656 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1677 and 1.1695 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1656 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1634, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return if the data are strong. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1677 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1656 and 1.1634 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated price at which Take Profit can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further gains above this level are unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated price at which Take Profit can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to use the overbought and oversold zones as a guide.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.