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10.05.2012 12:06 PM
USD/CAD Elliott Wave Count for May 10, 2012

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USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Yesterday the USD/CAD pair has finished developing (1) wave (coloured green). During the European session the USD/CAD pair was trading in a upward move toward the 1.0040 level. Therefore during the early New York session we could observe continuation of the bullish mood and price testing the 1.0060 resistance level. We can consider this move as the end of the final 5 wave of the bigger (1) wave (coloured green).The USD/CAD pair did not manage to hold this level and price rapidly fell to the 1.0000 level in the second half of the NY session.Today during the Asian session we could observe price breaking 50EMA support and hitting 0.9992. We expect to see the price under the 0.9930 level for the end of (2) wave (coloured green). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave (2) retraces 61.8% of the wave (1), we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci retracement (0.9799-1.0056); the First Take Profit at 0.9928 (50% of wave 1) and the Second Take Profit at 0.9898 (61.8% of wave 1). As Stop Loss we can use the resistance point at 1.0050. It is also necessary to consider the data concerning the CAD Trade Balance and USD Trade Balance, Unemployment Claims, Import Prices m/m, Fed Chairman, Federal Budget Balance Bernanke Speech that can affect the rate of the pair

Support and Resistance levels
(S3) 0.9942 (S2) 0.9973 (S1) 0.9992 (PP) 1.0023 (R1) 1.0054 (R2) 1.0073 (R3) 1.0104

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules, today the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 0.9990 with Stop Loss at 1.0050, Take Profit 1 at 0.9928 and Take Profit 2 at 0.9898 are recommended.

Summary
Urgency
Analytic
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