11.09.202512:51:11UTC+00US 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls to 5-Month Low

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note declined to 4.0% on Thursday, marking its lowest point in five months. This dip was largely influenced by the absence of unexpected increases in the latest CPI data, which shifted investors' focus to the mounting evidence of a weakening labor market. In the first week of September, initial jobless claims reached their highest level in nearly four years, consistent with the downbeat figures from the latest jobs report and payroll revision. This trend solidifies the shift from a previously resilient labor market in response to higher interest rates. Futures markets reflect a broad consensus anticipating a 75 basis points reduction in interest rates this year, suggesting a single rate cut anticipation per upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with the first expected next week. Nonetheless, headline inflation rates saw the anticipated increase in August. Persisting inflation expectations have led to the steepening of the U.S. yield curve, with the longer 30-year bonds projected to outperform other maturities.