EUR/USD

The euro rose 60 points last Friday, against economic releases in Europe and the United States. The fall in the yields of US government bonds was probably the main pressure on the dollar; the yield on 10-year securities decreased from 1.584% to 1.505%, on 2-year securities from 1.411% to 1.319%. Eurozone GDP showed an increase of 0.1% for the fourth quarter, against expectations of 0.2% (decrease from 1.2% y/y to 1.0% y/y). US personal incomes of consumers increased by 0.2% in December, while personal expenses were up 0.3%. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index for the final assessment in January was raised to 99.8 points from 99.1 points. And only the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Chicago region fell from 48.9 to 42.9. However, this is the smallest value since October 2009, and it could very well have an effect on the weakening of the US currency. The market expectation of a rate cut at the next Fed meeting increased from 16% to 26%. However, investors do not expect a real increase (that is, with a probability above 50%) until the end of the year.

US data after the Chicago indicator can be rehabilitated today by the ISM National PMI - January forecast 48.5 versus 47.2 in December. Tomorrow's volume of factory orders for December is expected in the range of 0.7-1.2% against -0.7% a month earlier. If economists were mistaken in their estimates of economic prospects, then the euro will continue to grow to a Fibonacci level of 110.0% at the price of 1.1155 (daily chart).

The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is turning from the boundary with the growth zone. From the opening of the session, the price immediately returned below the MACD line. The range of 1.1065-1.1100 is still an uncertain zone. Consolidation below its lower boundary can fuel a downward trend. The immediate goal of 1.1020 is to support the embedded line of the price channel.

The trend is completely upward on the four-hour chart - the price is above the indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator is reversing, but without clear reversal patterns. To continue the growth, the price must be consolidated above the upper limit of the 1.1100 range. Consolidation below 1.1065 may return the price to the MACD line, to the area 1.1020, to which the line seeks. The statistical probability of a reversal is 60%.