Trade Analysis and Advice for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.1796 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which in such a bullish market clearly limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

At first glance, news that the Eurozone's Consumer Price Index rose to 2.6% year-over-year in March should have triggered euro buying, but this did not happen. Although the data shows rising inflation, it remains within the expectations of European Central Bank economists and does not raise concerns about economic overheating. On the contrary, the current level of inflation is seen as moderate, reflecting a recovery in consumer demand rather than structural problems.

Next, fresh data on initial jobless claims is expected. This weekly indicator is one of the most timely ways to assess labor market conditions. A decline in claims usually signals strengthening and lower unemployment. Then, focus will shift to the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, which includes components such as new orders, employment levels, and supply chains. At the same time, data on industrial production will be released. Growth in this indicator would likely support the US dollar against the euro.

As for intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the level of 1.1783 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1804. At 1.1804, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry level. Euro growth today should only be expected after very weak US data.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1765 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward 1.1783 and 1.1804 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1765 level (red line on the chart), targeting 1.1742. At this level, I plan to exit the market and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair will return today in the case of strong data.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1783 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1765 and 1.1742 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones

Important Note for Beginners: Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decision-making based solely on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.