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12.06.2012 05:00 PM
Uncertainty about the Euro is Growing - Fundamental Analysis for June 12, 2012

 

The markets are overwhelmed by a short-time euphoria stemming from the aid to Spain, announced on Saturday. And it is not illogical if we consider that the main problem, for both Spain and the rest of the countries are connected with banks and foreign debt as well as the lack of money and economic growth.
This situation is analogical to that when a person that does not work and has no fixed income goes to a bank for a loan. If the bank agrees to grant a credit, the person gets the money and thinks that the problem is solved. But before going home he begins to wonder how that money will be returned, as he still does not have any commercial activity.
Indeed, in thousands of cases, this is what happened to so many people who took mortgages, with very loose hand the banks agreed to provide loans in the times of extreme market liquidity, and when the executives were paid huge commissions by these actions.
The problem now is that the banks allocated the loans which now have become uncollectible.
It is clear that the Spanish state is not free from the issue, as was supposed. With so many changes and confusion, Mario Monti, the Italian Prime Minister, is quick to find solutions to his country, at a time when the focus of the markets is to attack the countries in trouble.
With the elections in Greece due to occur in a few days, the uncertainty about the future price of the euro is growing, and this explains its behaviour during the past few hours, without defining its course towards 1.30 or 1.20 – the ways that will undoubtedly be taken next week.
The rest of the market follows to these movements, with very narrow ranges of price moves, while maintaining a slight upward trend, like the euro and the pound, the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. In all cases, their crosses against the dollar had started the week with respective gaps that were covered during Monday's session, so the short-term technical analysis is becoming braver again.
We do not expect any important economic data to be published during the American session, so once again, the Dow Jones, which readings have been growing of late, will set the pace for the rest of the day.

 

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