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16.01.2014 01:42 AM
Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 16, 2014

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Range and volatility:В 

  • The EUR/USD pair set a range of 139 pips last week and this number of points which seems insignificant compared with a worth of this pair. Thus, according to previous events we expect a wider range this week that it will probably start from the price of 1.3582, and it will be continuing towards the strong resistance on January 16, 2014 at the 1.3685 level. Additionally, the volatility has calculated and found 189.27; therefore, the market indicates the higher volatility today, equally important it should be noted that the relation between the Volatility and the market movements lies in: so, let's say you did not close your position after 1H:30M, so after each 15 minutes the Volatility will be decreased "Volatility - (Volatility 40/100)" if you wait more then the trend can go against you at any moment. Because just after this lap of time the probability is that this Volatility decrease every 15 minutes.В 

Trading recommendations:В 

  • The price has still been trapped between 1.3575 and 1.3634.В 
  • Below 1.3686 (100% of Fibonacci retracement levels and the double top) look for further downside with 1.3634 in order to retest the weekly pivot point and 1.3580 targets.В 
  • Buy at 1.3583 (23.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels in H1 chart) with a first target of 1.3640, it might resume to 1.3670. Nevertheless, it should be placed a stop loss should be below of the first weekly support at the 1.3535 level.
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Mourad El Keddani
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