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08.10.2012 01:48 PM
EUR/JPY - Elliott Wave Analysis for October 8 - 2012

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Today's Support and Resistance Levels: 

S1: 101.29                    R1: 101.86

S2: 100.93                    R2: 102.55

S3: 100.68                    R3: 102.97

 

Technical Overview:  

 

Wave 5 higher is progressing nicely and we have seen blue wave iii of wave 5 topped out at 102.97, where blue wave iii was almost exactly 4.236 times longer than blue wave i. We will now be looking for blue wave iv, which we expect will bottom around 101.29, where it will have corrected 50% of blue wave iii. As this corrective target already has been tested we could already have seen the low and should be looking for blue wave v higher. To confirm that blue wave v is ongoing we need a break above 102.08, but a break above the minor resistance will confirm a new rally towards 104.41 where the entire rally from 94.10 will find its peak and the largest correction since this rally began should be expected.
What if we break below the 50% correction target at 101.29? That would extent the correction from 102.97 towards 100.93, but we should still expect a new rally higher thereafter as we only have three waves in the rally from 99.63. That said at no point can a break below 100.36 be accepted, as that would cause an overlap between blue wave i and blue wave iv, which is not allowed under the Elliott Wave Principle and will force a recount.

 

 

Trading Recommendation: 

You should be long EUR from 100.20 with a stop at 100.70. If you are long EUR already you should buy close to support at 101.29 with the same stop and in both cases take profit should be set at 104.25.

Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Torben Melsted
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