Yesterday the euro dropped 40 points, the British pound grew 75 points. The euro dropped due to pessimistic outlook provided by the European commission on economic outlook and unemployment rate; it is forecast to stay at 12.2% by 2015. UK PMI Services in October was 62.5 vs. expectations for 60.4 and 60.3 in September; the figures gave optimist to investors.

Today there will be released important economic data on the UK. At 13:30 UTC+4 data on Industrial Production in September, forecast 0.7% vs. -1.1% in August. Manufacturing Production is expected to grow 1.2 vs. -1.2% in August. At 19:00 UTC+4 NIESR GDP forecast in October is expected to rise 0.5% vs. 0.8% in September and the direction of price movement will be depicted by the balance of released figures. If the balance is positive the continuation of the correction up to the area 1.6120 is expected; if the balance is negative, even in line with the forecast, we expect the price drop to 1.5955 will be resumed.

Speaking about the Eurozone, at 14:00 UTC+4 data on Retail Sales in September is to be released, forecast -0.3% vs. a 0.7% rise in August. At 15:00 UTC+4 Factory Orders in Germany in September is revealed, the expectations are positive; a 0.6% increase against -0.3% in August. Thus, as in case with the UK data, the direction of the price movement will be depicted by the balance of the data. If the data is in line with forecast, the price will be directed rather downwards, than upwards. In the US secondary indicators are issued today; however, the investors are waiting for tomorrow when US GDP in the third quarter is to be published; if is forecast to grow 1.9% vs. 2.5% in the second quarter. Tomorrow the Bank of England and the ECB make announcement on the interest rate decision.

Consequently, we expect close of the positions of the buyers of the euro and the British pound. As for the euro we expect the trade will be in the range 1.3440/50 – 1.3525. 

AUD/USD.

Today, tomorrow and the day after tomorrow the oil traders will be concentrated on the international talks which take place in Geneva on Iran’s nuclear programme. White House strives to restrain the Congressmen to take new prohibitive measures against Teheran, as it makes compromises. However, the Irans’ rivals Saudi Arabia and Israel which have lobby make attempts to impose new sanctions. The talks are scheduled on November 7 and 8.

Today at 19:30 UTC+4 US data on inventories of oil, petroleum, and distillates in the US for the previous week is revealed. It is estimated to be 1.63 million barrels vs. 4.08 million in the previous week and 5.24 million in the mid-October. However, increase in the oil inventories and distillate. If data is in line with forecasts, oil may correct its movement to the upwards and support the Australian dollar. In this case we expect the continuation of the price correction to the area 0.9525/50. If oil inventories increases we expect horizontal or downward pressure on oil and the decline of the Aussie to 0.9456 and then to 0.9400 amid first positive results of the talks in Geneva, i.e. oil will be declining.